NFL Pigskin Record:
ATS: 5-4 Parlays: 0-1 Teasers: 3-0
For Greg Gamble’s NFL pick of the day, Touch Me
Week 6 of this fine NFL pigskin season moves me to chat about two topics…facts and trends. I’m gonna spill some knowledge on you that will give you a feel for why I do what I do, but the beautiful part is that after it all you can simply say…T-Bone, you’re one of the coolest guys I know, but your still full of shit. So lets dig in and see if we can walki away with some lettuce.
Lets first break it down by home dogs and home favorites. The home dogs have only covered 36% of the time in the last 3 weeks, while the favorites have covered 51% of the time. That leads me to pretty much ignore anyone who is a home favorite for right now. When you look even deeper, those home dogs from even to +5 have only covered 29% of the time, +5 to +10 is 33% of the time, and over +10 is 100%(only one game, I believe the Fins/Pats if my memory serves me correctly, damn bong resin).
So I am gonna focus in on any game that has the home team between even and +10. Today brings us 3 games….Falcons +3.5 against the Bears, 49ers +5.5 against the Eagles, and the Cardinals +5.5 against the Cowboys. There is a fourth on Monday w/ the Browns +8.5 against the Giants, so keep your eyes peeled on the action today to give you a feel for tomorrow(remember it is all about trends!!) So one of the 3 games is going to have the home team cover if the trend continues, which I think it will.
In my mind the Falcons have the best chance of covering cuz they are 2-0 at home and have a ground game that puts up nearly 200 yds/game, so they can control the game and the crowd on their own turf. The Cardinals are 2-0 at home as well, however they have an aging QB and running back that are both going to run out of steam soon, and Boldin is on the sideline with a head injury, oh yeah, they also play the Cowboys who are 3 points short of a perfect season.
But the game I like the most.....
....is the Eagles/49er matchup. The niners are only 1-2 at home, so that shows me signs of a team that just isn’t that good. They have a mediocre defense at best that gives up over 300 yds and more than 25 pts/gm AT HOME!! As for the Eagles, we all know that Donovan has put heat on himself and the whole team after the last 2 weeks. This is a perfect setting for them to break out. We all know the Eagles are way better than their 2-3 record, and they know they need to grab every win outside of their division that they can. Donovan has been working the air like a machine this year posting over 260 yds/game with a 64% completion percentage, and spreading the wealth by having 7 receivers that already have over 10 receptions in only 5 games of work.
When Donovan isn’t punishing the Niners defense, the Eagles will be doing what they traditionally do against bad teams, completely shut them down. They held both the Rams and the Steelers to under 6 points each by shutting down the running game and exploiting their immobile QB’s, and do you really think that will be a tough task today with Frank Gore and interception happy JT O’Sullivan? I’m done talking, Eagles roll 31-10.
Raiders @ Saints teased down to -1
Bush, McAllister, Brees. Too much talent against a defense that gives up over 25 a game and is horrible against the pass. Asking them to win at home is as easy as that nympho that just left her boyfriend.
To catch the other half of the teaser, CLICK HERE for some luv from Greggy G!! Good luck takin' Sharky for all he is worth!